How I Learned to Trust the Crowd

Let’s be honest: most business advice sounds like it’s written by someone who’s never had to make payroll or ship a product.

I used to think the same thing, but then I saw a YouTube video by JxmyHighroller that changed the way I do research for good.

The guy’s talking about how ranking NBA players is basically impossible. No matter how much data you have or how many “experts” you ask, everyone’s got a different take.

Sound familiar? That’s exactly how it feels when you’re trying to make a big business decision and every “guru” has a different answer.

But this is where things get interesting. The video shows how, when you ask a lot of normal people their thoughts on anything from basketball rankings to how many jellybeans are in a jar, the average answer is almost always freakishly accurate. Not only better than the loudest voice in the room, but also better than the so-called experts.

It’s called “the wisdom of the crowd.”

This really hit home for me. I was really worried about a new product idea a few years ago. I ran around in circles, worrying about every little thing and what the "right" thing to do was. I would ask one mentor and get one answer. If you ask one person, you'll get the opposite.

But personal opinions are full of bias and things they don't see. But when you average out a lot of different opinions, the ones that are really strange cancel each other out. You get something that is almost the right answer. It's like turning a radio dial until the static goes away and the music comes through.

So if you're having trouble making a big choice, like starting a new service, choosing a brand name, or even setting your prices, don't listen to just one person. Not even five. Speak with at least 100 current or potential customers.

Ask them questions that are easy to understand. Don't put too much thought into the survey. Don't try to get the answer you want; just keep it short and clear.

It's not magic. It's only math and a little bit of humility.

Are you ready to try it? If you're having trouble making a big decision, reply and tell me what you're thinking about. Or, even better, go talk to your own people and let me know what you find.

Talk to you soon,
— Shashank

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